NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:College football bowl projections: Playoff field starts to take shape after Week 4

There was another close call on NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe road for Florida State. There was a nail-biter for Ohio State that coincided with an impressive showing for Notre Dame in defeat. And there was the elimination of Clemson from the College Football Playoff picture entirely.

The rest of the situation near the top of the rankings stayed relatively the same. Southern California, Washington, Oregon and Utah kept rolling, setting the stage for bigger games with huge implications later in the Pac-12 season. One-loss Alabama didn’t suffer the same fate as Clemson by beating Mississippi to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Crimson Tide are among a group of teams with little margin for error, including LSU, Tennessee and Notre Dame.

There is some reason for optimism among those that will enter October with a loss. Only 21 teams from the Power Five are unbeaten after one month of the season with the ACC leading the way with six. That number will start to come down quickly with conference play beginning, making it unlikely four unbeatens can make it to the finish line.

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That's still a long way away. For now, the focus should just be on taking care of business one week at a time and seeing where things stand entering early November when the game pressure really ramps up.

Reminder: Some conferences may not fulfill their bowl allotment. Asterisks denote a replacement pick. James Madison is eligible for a bowl if there are not enough six-win teams to fill all the spots.